Well I expected a reversal this week and was short volatility
(see http://bobsstocksignals.blogspot.com/2015/11/thinking-out-loud.html) but not so quickly and violently, But in a unstable, low liquidity market run by automated trading is becoming the norm. Having said that yesterday was a good day.
XIV's stop is now $28.08, trailing it now $.50.
We also entered SSO at $62.53, stop is now 63.25, trailing now $.50
BIS short at $32.50, stop is now $32.50, Trailing now $.50
GDX at 13.87, stop is 13.67. Trailing $.20
NADEX long trade was a winner, as well.
For today, I expect consolidation, and maybe a pullback. My target was 2060 for the week, and we hit it overnight. If we blast through we are going to challenge new highs, if not watching for a trade back down to Monday's open, by Friday.
Will post new set up's as they hit my signal. You can sign up on the right if interested.
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
Sunday, November 15, 2015
Thinking Out Loud
I am looking at this selloff to abate this week, and a Thanksgiving Day rally to commence. Then we sell off again into the Santa Claus rally, which gives way to selling into the New year. I think we move down to 1760 area on the futures late winter before start a new rally phase.
Any break up from the down trend line says we start a more meaningful up move first.
If my scenario plays out we will have a great opportunity to buy XIV at a bargain of about $10, for a multi-month triple digit expected gain.
Any break up from the down trend line says we start a more meaningful up move first.
If my scenario plays out we will have a great opportunity to buy XIV at a bargain of about $10, for a multi-month triple digit expected gain.
Friday, November 13, 2015
Daily Recap / Look Ahead
Yesterday was a mixed bag for me. I had a good trade making $1.80 on IWM short, but jumped the move in miners and lost $.87 on DUST in the opening whipsaw. The signal hit, and I took it. It happens.
I also entered puts on UVXY for next Friday (28's). I am holding them still . My signal is max overbought and historically the mean reversion hits within 3-5 trading days. I will add to and sell a put on the $26's by the end of the day.
For NADEX took one buy under the double bottom, (EOD 2051 )and stopped myself out at 2053. I did not reenter another trade.
We had a move outside of the range and then a reversal. I need to aggressively trade that failure, in this case, go short.
For today, it is likely we have an inside day. We are still in a downtrend and we have been selling consolidating, selling, etc. My view is we target 198 on SPY, and will short this next move higher into the 20 moving average (2 hour chart).
Update, if we open above 2040, I see us testing the overnight high, if not looking at the S1, at 2027 area. I bought EOD 2025 for $81. Will make additional trades after 10:30 EST.
I also entered puts on UVXY for next Friday (28's). I am holding them still . My signal is max overbought and historically the mean reversion hits within 3-5 trading days. I will add to and sell a put on the $26's by the end of the day.
For NADEX took one buy under the double bottom, (EOD 2051 )and stopped myself out at 2053. I did not reenter another trade.
We had a move outside of the range and then a reversal. I need to aggressively trade that failure, in this case, go short.
For today, it is likely we have an inside day. We are still in a downtrend and we have been selling consolidating, selling, etc. My view is we target 198 on SPY, and will short this next move higher into the 20 moving average (2 hour chart).
Update, if we open above 2040, I see us testing the overnight high, if not looking at the S1, at 2027 area. I bought EOD 2025 for $81. Will make additional trades after 10:30 EST.
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
Daily Recap
Today both NADEX EOD trades were positive for us. I made a strategic shift to watching the first hour before entering. We are getting a lot of trend and trend reversal trades vs the expected range bound trades.
I look at the first hour for my range and note if the Overnight range was taken out to guide my entries.
We exited the XIV long trade with a $.60 trailing stop profit. We entered IWM short at 117.63, with a $.63 trailing. Current stop is 117.76.
Thursday before OPEX is traditionally bearish, and we are sitting on the neckline of a Head and Shoulder top. We fail, down to 2025-30 area, Pattern fails, then right back up we go.
Good night.
I look at the first hour for my range and note if the Overnight range was taken out to guide my entries.
We exited the XIV long trade with a $.60 trailing stop profit. We entered IWM short at 117.63, with a $.63 trailing. Current stop is 117.76.
Thursday before OPEX is traditionally bearish, and we are sitting on the neckline of a Head and Shoulder top. We fail, down to 2025-30 area, Pattern fails, then right back up we go.
Good night.
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
How to Use My Signals
Just a reminder on how to use my signals.
As I don't know how everyone likes to trade, and mixing it up myself, I simply publish the buy and sell signal coming from my software. You pick what you like to trade.
I use a 2 hour chart, and it is a combination of momentum, trend and position indicators that alert me to a trade. Once the signal fires you have a number of choices. Example; yesterday a buy on GLD and DUST fired.
I published the signal, the price at which it fired, and a stop and a trailing stop. My stop is based on a ATR that matches my momentum look back, and I trail using the same level. This way if we get a trend move, we can stay in the trade and profit from it. If not, get out and move on to the next trade. Trading is a numbers game, and stops are critical, and is most traders Achilles heel (me too when I ignore placing them). I won't publish when the stop loss hits though. (I can't capture it, and may not be in that trade), but if I publish a trade I take, I will publish my exit.
I like to use options, so I usually take a at the money strike, two weeks out, and us the stop as a guide to exit the trade. Sometimes I will do a credit spread to capture income opposite of the direction of the signal (do that mostly with SPY and VXX), and another choice is to use the leveraged ETF's instead, like UVXY for a VXX signal, NUGT for GDX, etc. Your choice.
For NADEX, I stop out if price hits my strike, as NADEX does not allow stop losses.
Finally, I am now comfortable enough with a sixty minute signal for SPX to recommend ES future options. More of a swing/Climate type of trade. Stay tuned.
Good trading
As I don't know how everyone likes to trade, and mixing it up myself, I simply publish the buy and sell signal coming from my software. You pick what you like to trade.
I use a 2 hour chart, and it is a combination of momentum, trend and position indicators that alert me to a trade. Once the signal fires you have a number of choices. Example; yesterday a buy on GLD and DUST fired.
I published the signal, the price at which it fired, and a stop and a trailing stop. My stop is based on a ATR that matches my momentum look back, and I trail using the same level. This way if we get a trend move, we can stay in the trade and profit from it. If not, get out and move on to the next trade. Trading is a numbers game, and stops are critical, and is most traders Achilles heel (me too when I ignore placing them). I won't publish when the stop loss hits though. (I can't capture it, and may not be in that trade), but if I publish a trade I take, I will publish my exit.
I like to use options, so I usually take a at the money strike, two weeks out, and us the stop as a guide to exit the trade. Sometimes I will do a credit spread to capture income opposite of the direction of the signal (do that mostly with SPY and VXX), and another choice is to use the leveraged ETF's instead, like UVXY for a VXX signal, NUGT for GDX, etc. Your choice.
For NADEX, I stop out if price hits my strike, as NADEX does not allow stop losses.
Finally, I am now comfortable enough with a sixty minute signal for SPX to recommend ES future options. More of a swing/Climate type of trade. Stay tuned.
Good trading
Friday, October 30, 2015
A Macro View
Well the final assault on Everest has begun. 2065 is the base camp, 2081 is the final sleeping area, and since we are at month end, and all earnings disappointments are being ignored, it is a safe bet we hit new highs within the week,
Then what? The Fed is calling for rate hikes (won't happen), revenues and earnings will get worse for the fourth quarter, stock buy backs are reaching saturation, the Vix has one more good push down left in it, and the dollar's strength will continue to hurt U.S based multinationals.
Here are a couple of charts that suggest 2016 is in for a rough ride. We simply are running out of oxygen. I am asked if not stocks, where? Well bonds, especially long bonds will make you money as the rush for safety gets going in earnest, cash is an option, as well. Then when the Fed panics, gold and the miners.
For today, I am expecting a test down to support at 2081, and break the Globex lows, then a grind higher into the close.I would be impressed if it broke the high though. I remain short Volatility and Miners, and will buy 2081 on ES if I can get it.
For NADEX, I will grind out 6-7 trades again. Yesterday we were perfect. Enjoy
Then what? The Fed is calling for rate hikes (won't happen), revenues and earnings will get worse for the fourth quarter, stock buy backs are reaching saturation, the Vix has one more good push down left in it, and the dollar's strength will continue to hurt U.S based multinationals.
Here are a couple of charts that suggest 2016 is in for a rough ride. We simply are running out of oxygen. I am asked if not stocks, where? Well bonds, especially long bonds will make you money as the rush for safety gets going in earnest, cash is an option, as well. Then when the Fed panics, gold and the miners.
For today, I am expecting a test down to support at 2081, and break the Globex lows, then a grind higher into the close.I would be impressed if it broke the high though. I remain short Volatility and Miners, and will buy 2081 on ES if I can get it.
For NADEX, I will grind out 6-7 trades again. Yesterday we were perfect. Enjoy
Thursday, October 29, 2015
Back To Our Regular Programming
OK, Fed day is over, and for the next two weeks they get to pretend they are Monetary hawks. Of course they will not raise rates in December, or ever. But that is beside the point for trading in the moment.
As I said yesterday, stronger dollar, means stronger money flows into the country, and cheaper commodities. The money flows will overwhelm the new risk models for buying equities for now, and stocks and bonds will remain bid. Commodities on the other hand are in trouble.
For today, I expect an inside day and will look for one or two ES trades (watching the 64 High volume area) and trade NADEX two hour expiration s.
GLD, VXX and GDX are on my sell signal again, and am neutral on SPY, IBB, AAPL, and IWM Will post out any changes to that.
As I said yesterday, stronger dollar, means stronger money flows into the country, and cheaper commodities. The money flows will overwhelm the new risk models for buying equities for now, and stocks and bonds will remain bid. Commodities on the other hand are in trouble.
For today, I expect an inside day and will look for one or two ES trades (watching the 64 High volume area) and trade NADEX two hour expiration s.
GLD, VXX and GDX are on my sell signal again, and am neutral on SPY, IBB, AAPL, and IWM Will post out any changes to that.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)