Revised 5/25/15
We have been running the signals live now for almost two months, and the results have been positive, and I have received some great feedback.
I created two levels of signals, the 2 hour and the daily (4 hourly for SVXY). The signal when sent, will indicate if it is a 2 hour or a daily signal. They do not correlate with each other. The 2 hour is designed for 1-2 days, and the Daily will run with the longer term swing trend, up to two weeks in a trending market.
SPY, IWM, BIB, and GDX signals allow you to go long and short depending on whether the signal is a buy or is a sell. You also can substitute the leveraged ETF's and use options to increase returns. If you are using regular leverage, set a 2% or a 2% trailing stop to manage for 2 hour and 4% for the daily). If using leverage give it 3%, to 6% for daily, and options, I usually go out two weeks, at the money, and will give it 25% for the 2 hour, and a month for the Daily.
I try to bring it up to break even on all my stops as soon as practical to take out the risk.
GLD, I just use Calls or puts.
SVXY two hour buy, buy either SVXY or XIV, on a sell, get out, do not reverse. (I am still watching a nice VXX long signal to deploy).
SVXY 4 hour, my favorite trade. When you get a buy here, short UVXY with slightly out of the money options, two weeks out. VXX puts work, as well.
As a reminder, these are probability trades, you will get chopped 20-25% of the time, but the trend moves will reward you well.
Thanks for the feedback..
Sunday, May 17, 2015
Saturday, May 9, 2015
Big Moves are Coming
I follow four areas of the market very closely; volatility, miners, gold, and the SPY index, and everything smells of deflation. I trade on the 2 and 4 hour, but I took a step back and looked at the monthly, weekly, and daily charts and everywhere I look it smells of lack of oxygen.
The broad market has a decreasing positive slope (8% y-t-d), and why not, you cannot continue to have 10-14% (from 2014) annualized growth rates with no GDP, Income, or fixed income rates. The charade started with a relative yield trade, then a squeeze volatility trade, and now we are wrapping up the leverage the balance sheet trade. The Central Banks and politicians have done everything except the right thing, and maybe because the right thing is the hard thing.
As far as I can tell deflation is taking root everywhere in the world, and that makes raising prices very hard, and realistically, I believe in the short term, employers cannot really chop until and unless revenues start to fall in earnest. They are losing all of their variable expenses to exploit, and are sitting on increasing amounts of debt. If Yellen increases rates (which I have serious doubts she will), the carrying costs of that debt becomes increasingly material.
Bull markets are not made of these.
The charts are bearing me out, SPY is stuck in a range, where the algos are torturing the short sellers, but there are no marginal new buyers. Margin debt is maxed, retail traders are all in, and the Central Banks has stopped giving the banks new casino money. Using wedge break mathematics, 900 on SPY over the next 18 months is a distinct possibility.
Biotech cannot get out of its way, and I believe that bubble has burst, and will retrace all gains. 80% of all firms in the index have negligible revenue, and are simply burning investor cash. Good night. Social Media is showing that expectations far exceed growth, and the punishments are beginning. Gold has never bought the inflation story, and my expectations are a hard move down, same for the miners.
Enjoy the charts.
The broad market has a decreasing positive slope (8% y-t-d), and why not, you cannot continue to have 10-14% (from 2014) annualized growth rates with no GDP, Income, or fixed income rates. The charade started with a relative yield trade, then a squeeze volatility trade, and now we are wrapping up the leverage the balance sheet trade. The Central Banks and politicians have done everything except the right thing, and maybe because the right thing is the hard thing.
As far as I can tell deflation is taking root everywhere in the world, and that makes raising prices very hard, and realistically, I believe in the short term, employers cannot really chop until and unless revenues start to fall in earnest. They are losing all of their variable expenses to exploit, and are sitting on increasing amounts of debt. If Yellen increases rates (which I have serious doubts she will), the carrying costs of that debt becomes increasingly material.
Bull markets are not made of these.
The charts are bearing me out, SPY is stuck in a range, where the algos are torturing the short sellers, but there are no marginal new buyers. Margin debt is maxed, retail traders are all in, and the Central Banks has stopped giving the banks new casino money. Using wedge break mathematics, 900 on SPY over the next 18 months is a distinct possibility.
Biotech cannot get out of its way, and I believe that bubble has burst, and will retrace all gains. 80% of all firms in the index have negligible revenue, and are simply burning investor cash. Good night. Social Media is showing that expectations far exceed growth, and the punishments are beginning. Gold has never bought the inflation story, and my expectations are a hard move down, same for the miners.
Enjoy the charts.
Monday, May 4, 2015
Thar's gold on Those Stock Signals
I just added GLD to the signal family. No additional charge to current and new members. My preference is options, and have been heavier on the sell signal than on the buy signal until the trend changes. I hope you subscribe?
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