Morning Update

The Ultimate Portfolio is still 50/50 XIV to SDS.  The 50K to 1 million challenge is back to cash after a profitible SVXY trade.  We are short ES on a Swing trade, and am remaining so.  Signal is neutral to bearish.  I took my first foray into TVIX, and got back out at breakeven.  We are going into the seasonally strong volatility months of August, September, and October.

Another EOD NADEX positive trade yesterday, and went short again for 2111 for EOD today.

Gold popped this morning, and DUST budged down, but still underwater on the trade.  Depending on much it moves today will inform my next step on keeping, pushing, or closing the trade.

The market is stuck back again at 2100, but it is continuing its rolling over pattern.  Surprises will be to the downside.

I will post all performances this weekend, along with some charts.

Morning update

The Ultimate Portfolio is staying at 50/50 XIV to SDS for today.

The 50K to 1 million challenge is still long SVXY but likely will be sold today.  It will be another profitable trade.

The ES swing signal went short yesterday at 2101, it is green, and the signal looks to stay short today.

We sold NADEX short yesterday at 2110 for EOD today, looking pretty good so for.  Yesterday was our first loss in eight days for EOD.

Gold is struggling again, which does not bode well for my DUST trade.

I am likely to go long TVIX today.  I don't ormally go long Vol, but I am getting a lot of requests for it, so I will purchase 500 to 1000 shares and report my buy sell on it, real time.

Good trading all.

Morning Update

Today is a tricky day.  My signals suggest we exhausted the up move, and can expect the primary trend down to continue, but the FED releases today and who knows how people will rect to the entrails, so I probably am not going to place an ES trade today.  For NADEX EOD, I will place a short trade close to the open as it is inconceivable to me the the FED will say they won't raise rates this fall at this meeting.

For the UVXY trade, another winner, and we closed the trade.  Average in at $2.30 out at $3.75.  We had 7 set ups in July, unbelievable; we took five, four of them profitable.

The XIV/SDS Ultimate portfolio remains at 50/50  The portfolio is easily outperforming the SPY index.

The 50K to a million challenge is back in SVXY from yesterday's open.

I am short DUST through Puts. That trade is still underwater, I will give it to the end of the week.

I'll post any new trades to subscribers as they signal.  If you want the best bargain on the net, sign up on the right. It'll pay for itself on your first trade.

Morning Update.

We got our bounce and my signal had us in ES from 2061.75, to 2074.  The primary trend is still down, and the hourly trade signal is now overbought, but it is flagging out, so looks like there is still some upside left, but without me.

Why? I am holding UVXY puts that are in the money pre market.  Should be green, so will set stops to ensure a profit on this trade, as well.

Based on the signal we rebalanced the XIV/SDS Ultimate portfolio to 50/50 at the close.  We posted we were doing this in the morning.  The signal is easily outperforming the SPY index.

The 50K to a million challenge is in cash.

We also posted a EOD NADEX trade yesterday for todays close.  Long at 2056 for $76.  That trade will pay us today, as well.

I am short DUST through Puts. That trade is still underwater, but DUST is struggling at these levels.

I'll post any new trades to subscribers as they signal.  If you want the best bargain on the net, sign up on the right. It'll pay for itself on your first trade.

Finally, I have been asked to do a Webinar on my signals, and am thinking about the third week in August.  email me at bobsstocksignals@gmail.com if you want the date and the time, and cost.  It will come with an eBook of the class, as well.

God trading all

Looking for a Bounce

Morning Update

OK, we are getting close to my 2036-2050 bounce area.  I was short ES overnight and just covered. the 4 hour ES signal is still on a sell, and the hourly cover signal is at zero, but I have been riding down these bear flags since 2125 and covering, and looks like we will ge one more and we go into FED meeting bounce area.

Tonight I am switching the Ultimate Portfolio to a 50/50 ratio.  That means take the total portfolio value and allocate it 50/50 to XIV and SDS.  I will do this between 12:30 and 1PM my time today

50K to $1 million is in cash, and I have no other trades on at the moment.

I will place my EOD NADEX trade on by 6:50am

Weekly Update

Overall a very good week.  Below are the weekly performances for the Ultimate Portfolio, and the 50K to a million volatility trade.

The Ultimate portfolio up 12% since inception, SPY down .3%

The NADEX EOD trade went 100% for the week.  I just opened and funded a $500 account for my daughter for spending money.  I will only do EOD trades/spreads on it, the ones that I post, so you can follow the progress.  I will note any withdrawals.

Gold and the miners have bounced on Friday, and I am looking for a reach back up to former support areas.  For now GLD and GDX are on Buys.  We put on a great DUST short trade with puts last week.  I post overbought Ultra short set ups.  High probability trades.

For SPY and IWM they are on sells, but expecting a bounce this week, just not sure when.  Price is in between trend lines.  ES is the same way.  I have had three big swing shorts this week, and thinking 2040-50 is support.  Thinking bounce then we keep rolling down into the end of September.  My signal will guide me though.

Volatility short trade is in wait for it mode.  Price is falling faster then volatility usually rises. That means liquidation and not hedging, and that is usually bearish for the market.

Good trading, and if you want all of these great signals, real time, sign up on the right.

Finally, I have been asked to put on a Webinar on how I trade these positions, and create an eBook on it.  I am thinking I will, and conduct the training towards the end of August.  If you want to be on the list to find out the date and cost, please email me at bobsstocksignals@gmail.com.

Morning Update

The Ultimate Portfolio is still 70/30 SDS to XIV.  My signal is still indicating a downtrend.  The 50K to $1 million portfolio went long SVXY Wednesday, and thankfully reversed itself yesterday with little movement in the price. I didn't like when signals were in conflict.  The trend seems to be for the market to get back to the bottom of the channel at 2040.

I went short DUST puts for August week 1 one, strike $31.  This fever will break, probably by Wednesday when it becomes clear yet again the FED will never raise interest rates.

NADEX had another EOD winner,  and just went short again for today.  

I am also short ES on a Swing.  

Morning update.

The Ultimate Portfolio is still 70/30 SDS to XIV.  My signal is still indicating a downtrend.  The 50K to $1 million portfolio went long SVXY yesterday.  I don't like when signals are in conflict but the nature of volatility ETF's allows for that on occasion to produce winning trades.  I don't override my signal as over time it works extremely well.

I shorted NADEX for EOD last night at $25, looks likely it is another winner for us.  Gold and Miners looks like they formed a short term bottom, and I will short DUST again today.  For subscribers, I will post the trade real time.

Good trading out there.

Morning Update

We are leaving the ultimate Portfolio at 70/30 SDS to XIV.  The portfolio is now up 11% since I started it July 1st.  The S&P is up less than 2%.  Only three trades taken, and at the end of the day, with an entire day's notice of the re balance.

The 50K to $1 million challenge just closed out another profitable SVXY trade, and is now up 80% for the year.  Signal is sent real time.

We closed a very profitable DUST put trade yesterday, as well as a profitable NADEX daily short trade.

Right now we are in a daily short trade at 2119 that is looking good.  Come join my service, no drama, great value, make money.  Have a great trading day.

Stress is Building

The government, the FED, and the media are all telling us, all is well, in fact it is going so well that they will need to raise interest rates soon.  I am here to tell you that they are lying to you.  Things are not well.  I cut and pasted some excerpts from what is hitting the news today, and when food companies start struggling, even with commodities starting to fall, you must pay attention.

In addition, I have an investment in a small Mexican grocery store, that is extremely well managed, and this summer they is starting to see sales falling off.  They serve the mid to lower mid market.

Ralphs, which is owned by Kroger, walked away from a prime location as sales were not justifying the rents (which I think is part of the problem), and the new store that went in is like visiting a mausoleum.  It is an ethnic store that caters to the Middle, Near East and South Asia (very affluent folks from those parts live in my area), the offerings are superb, and prices are low.

Haggen's rolled into our area last year, and they are a dud.  They are a Whole Foods kind of place without the panache.  They are laying off workers.

Back East, A & P is bankrupt again, and will likely be liquidated this time.

A little secret of the grocery business is the profit centers are along the walls and edges; bakery, deli, drinks, hot food, and Organics, no money anywhere else.  People cannot afford the up-sells from these areas anymore.

My view is grocery stores give us a good window into many parts of the economy, and what is affecting them is structural, and are inelastic problems that force breaks; such as,

• Union pension and healthcare costs, 
• Consumers new healthcare tax that is showing double digit increases, 
• Commercial REIT's that are formula driven with automatic price increases to the tenants, 
• Zero income growth on consumers who also are seeing formulaic rent increases by Apartment REIT's. 

There will be no voluntary reduction in these costs, it will be imposed on them.

 It is all coming to a head, right now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-21/united-natural-foods-plunges-after-albertsons-contract-canceled?cmpid=yhoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-files-ch-11-bankruptcy-2nd-time-five-130301584--finance.html

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-haggen-albertsons-lawsuit-20150720-story.html

As an aside, sales are slipping with Apple and Chipolte (reported tonight), the Millennial's churches. They're broke too. We killed them with Healthcare costs they don't need, want or can afford, and overpriced College degrees that don't give them the return on their investment.



Be careful out there.

Morning Update

I am still at 30/70 XIV to SDS ratio for the Ultimate portfolio.  We placed a short on NADEX last night at 2128 for EOD today.  We placed a put option trade on DUST yesterday, July Week 5 strike 30 for $1.85.  I am looking for a relief rally.  Finally the $50K to a $1 million challenge is still long SVXY.

I am expecting some pullback in the market this week.

DUST is Going Parabolic

Week End Update and Performance

Last Week was a very good week.  We shorted Volatility and Gold through options, and they performed well.  Both of those trades are closed.

The $50,000 to $1,000,000 portfolio challenge I started in January is just plugging along.  It is now up nearly 80% for the year, averaging one round trip trade a week.

For those who do not wish to trade but want a low volatility market beating portfolio, I developed and am publishing my Ultimate portfolio. I started it in July, and it is designed to allow for end of day rebalancing once or twice a month.  It is a ratio by shares between XIV and SDS and it is modified based on my momentum indicators.  It is up nearly 11% from inception in July.

For the week ahead, statistically should be a down week, and gold and miners should get a bounce, but the market has momentum, so I am not sure what trades will set up yet.  I did however re-balance the ultimate portfolio at close, and posted that in the morning on Friday to give everyone a heads up. I am giving that trade away for free, so check back every day to see if I post an update.

For NADEX EOD, Options the SVXY trade and my other automated signals. those are for subscribers at a whopping $12.50/month.  It is a bargain, and many tell me to jack up the price, but if enough subscribe at that price it is worth my time to share these very profitable signals, and for you to check it out.  Always can cancel anytime.

I POST ALL TRADES REAL TIME TO TWITTER, SO THERE IS A RECORD.

Wow

A very unusual thing happened in the market last week.  The Nasdaq rose 1% but the number of stocks that make up that index which declined exceeded the number of stocks that rose.  This means that more and more of the gains are coming from less and less companies.

That is not good for the markets, and it is so rare it usually means the markets are signalling a strong change in direction; down.  Coupled with that we had the quickest decline in volatility recorded.  A drop of nearly 50% in less than two weeks.  Declining volatility is like oxygen to the stock market, but that record move only moved the main indexes 4%.

This tells me the market is exhausting itself.  The risk of being in the market is now exceeding the risk of being out of the market.

https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/622119090308542464/photo/1

Look what happened the last time this occurred.

Ultimate Portfolio Position Change

At the end of the day I am re-balancing my XIV/SDS back to 70%/30% SDS/XIV.  This is a shares re-balance, that stays with these shares until I re-balance again.  We had an incredible run of vol collapse in the past two weeks.

Morning Update

Keeping the SDS/XIV ratio at 50/50 for the Ultimate portfolio (up 10.77% and beating the SPY average, inception to date), and back long SVXY in the Volatility $50K to $1,000,000 plan ($86,000, up 76% Y-T-D). NADEX paid us today with a 2117 short.  Looking to set a short again tomorrow and lay on a spread as the signal allows.

Also went short Gold yesterday as it broke to new post 2008 lows.  I think the final flush is upon us.

Get my signals real time by signing up on the right.

Gold Broke the No Go Line

Dollar strong again, putting pressure on gold.  It is now time for a August Put.  My target is 102 within 90 days.

Morning Update

Keeping the SDS/XIV ratio at 50/50 for the Ultimate portfolio (up 5.88% and beating the SPY average, inception to date), and still in cash on the Volatility $50K to $1,000,000 plan ($86,000, up 76% Y-T-D). NADEX paid us today with a nice 2109, 2094 EOD spread.  Looking to set a short again tomorrow and lay on a spread as the signal allows.

Also, getting ready for a nice swing short on DUST.  Maybe two weeks out. Stay tuned.

Get all my signals real time by singing up on the right.  Dirt cheap, and easily pays for itself with great trades.

Morning Update

The ultimate portfolio is staying at a 50/50 XIV/SDS mix for today.  Likely to stay at this setting for the next week.  Portfolio is up 6% from inception.  The $50,000 to $1 million portfolio is now back in cash, and is up 76% for the year.  Detailed performance charts on the weekend.

I am neutral on volatility today, and am short NADEX end of the day.  Sign up on the right to get real time signals on volatility, long term portfolio trades, options and ETF's.

Morning Update

I am staying with the 50/50 XIV/SDS mix on the Ultimate Portfolio, I sold 2101 short for EOD NADEX, and the $50,000 to a $1,000,000 portfolio is long SVXY.

I am expecting flattish to down today.

Morning Update

Maintaining my 50/50 share split on the ultimate portfolio (XIV/SDS) and selling NADEX 2092 today on the premarket ramp.

Here is the ultimate portfolio from July 1st.  Started at $30,000.  The break is where I changed ratios.

Morning Update

As I Tweeted to my followers.  I flipped the SDS/XIV model to a 50/50 ratio on the close.  I will look to short NADEX sometime today, but looking for a positive next few trading days.

Morning Update

I am keeping my Ultimate portfolio shares ratio at 83% SDS, and 17% XIV. At the close going to 50/50 ratio.  If we break up out of the 2067 area. we are going to new highs.  I will probably short Vol today.

Morning Update

I am keeping my Ultimate portfolio shares ratio at 83% SDS, and 17% XIV.  The market is struggling.

Morning Update

I am posting what I am calling the ultimate portfolio.  It is a ratio of two ETF's; SDS and XIV.  This ratio will change periodically per my market buy and sell signal.  It is a fairly low turnover portfolio and is designed to beat the market with lower than market downside volatility.  I will post the ratio every morning, and will publish the portfolio value and gains every weekend.  For reporting sake I started on July 1st and used $30,000 as a starting point.

Enjoy.

The ratio for today is 17% XIV and 83% SDS.

The Charts are in Limbo

Gold is coming off off the deck, but below the fib line, and SPY is in a daily upturn but stopped below the failed rising wedge with the 4 hourly now overbought.  I am leaning towards a yes vote, and a brief relief rally.  We shall see.