Weekend Update

The last two weeks are for the record books.  We had the biggest one day move in the Vix, and a 4.5 sigma move in SPY.  A 400 plus year event.  I suspect we are not down with the superlatives yet.  On Friday I got another buy signal on TVIX, and SPY/ES was stopped at some strong resistance areas.

My suspicions are that we have a cup formed, and a possibility of a move to 2017, or it fails here and a move back down to the lows until Fed day.  Pretty confident the highs are in for the year.

The portfolios were rocked.  They are not designed for such a move.  They will normalize after the Fed meeting. I am in cash on the 50K to a million challenge per the signal, and still 50/50 on the Ultimate portfolio.  The latter is now performing just under the SPY for the reporting period.

Our individual Option plays have done very well, and ES is being traded on 1,5,and15 minute now.

We only have a TVIX trade on, at the moment.  Staying very tactical for now.

Exeter Lives

If you believe as I do that the governments of the world have shot their load, and for whatever reason (politically, economically, or culturally) can't keep expanding their debt loads, means one thing.

EXETER Pyramid is activated.

First an explanation.  Exeter surmised that when the animal spirits are roaming free, investment activity drifts up the pyramid, and the reverse is true in a panic.  Why this is, is when people are feeling great they take on more risk, and more debt, and when conditions change they sell an asset that may no longer produce returns they desire, or in fact start losing money. They may voluntarily or forcibly liquidate the debt.  Then it gets interesting, as most people pledge assets as collateral, but the value of the collateral also may fall, thus forcing them to sell other assets, and if this affects enough people you cause a cascade, and a panic into the most trusted assets.

China has started that cascade.  Many on our shores have not seen seen the approaching Hurricane yet, but is rumbling through the BRICS (less India, but add Australia, the Middle East and Canada) through the utter collapse of commodity prices.  That is DEFCON TWO in the Pyramid.  At the same time emerging market debt and stock markets are getting pummelled, and in the last quarter, our junk related, and commodity related debt markets are breaking down.  We also are seeing stress in the Muni market and a stealth bear market in many stocks DEFCON THREE.

Last weeks complete wipe out of the of the entire market gains for 2015, and the Corporate Bond Market being saturated, and companies debt to income ratios at extremes, and gold waking up, I claim DEFCON FOUR has begun.

There will be a panic into U.S. dollars and investments, and into gold.  At first, the bond markets will see the best returns (forget the FED's blathering about raising interest rates), but usually will lend some support to our stock market, in the short term, as well. But our markets are so overvalued, and revenue growth going negative, this safe haven may have already run it's course.  Gold will see continued interest.

If someone asked me what shall I do with my money now, Treasuries, gold, and cash.  Oh, and hang on.  

If Trading, short Biotech and Apple is my theme.  Both are way overvalued and form the bulk of the gains in our markets in recent years.  Biotech will get  unpleasent attention this election cycle now that everyone must pay the first $4-8000 of their healthcare (on top of the 10-20 grand health insurance tax) and will start questioning these outsized profits at their families expense.  I know I am. Apple is out of must have ideas, global markets are retrenching, and current products will be commoditized.  I am sure there are more.

I don't think DEFCON FIVE hits on this next flush.

Life is getting interesting, again.

ES Chart

Morning Update Early

Well, the cup and handle to 2000 is nearly played out.  Amazing that the math is working so easily. The ride was wild though.  I think we need to look to end the week with a touch at 2017.  We'll see.

I took off the SVXY portion of the $50K to $1,000,000 challenge.  The backwardation will make this a sluggish trade for a while.  I also left the Ultimate portfolio at 50/50.  It will stay there through the Fed meeting.

NADEX was a winner today, and will put a sell trade on at 2022 if we can get it up to $25.

Our AAPL calls were a winner and we closed them, and we got a sell on IWM and a buy on GLD today.  But the choppiness may see us right back out of them.

Morning Update

1962 is a big number today.  We broke out of the second cup and handle, and that target is 2000.  The overnight high is now forming an hourly bull flag, and if 1962 is breached I see no reason why the cup will not complete.  Well see.

Planning no changes to either of my portfolios, and AAPL calls are foing well, and will get another boost this morning.

Bought NADEX 1934's for EOD.

We closed for a profit our GLD short and IWM puts.  The tally so far on ES since last Tuesday is 340 points.  I am long again.

If you want more real time trades, sign up.  Best bargain on the internet.

Morning Update

Good Morning.  It has been another wild set of days with Monday and yesterday one for the record books.

First my Ultimate portfolio is still sitting at 50/50.  I am likely to keep it there until the Yellen Fed meeting.

The $50K to $1 million challenge is back on long SVXY.

NADEX was untradeable for me these last two days.  These end of day redemptions and margin calls are scary, and it is OK to step away for a few days.  Watching the open for some clues.

ES trading for swings is impossible with volatility too high.  I can't set the stops wide enough that is still prudent enough.  However, I have had the best 5 days of trading the ES in my career.  Over 300 ES points gained, using only 1-2 contracts.  Trading either the one, five, or fifteen minute intervals.  I will show you my signal and process when I do my Webinar (more on that, this weekend).

We are also short and profitable on IWM and GLD.

The market is in a big pennant right now, and I still thinks it breaks down out of it.

Morning Update

I am a little sleepy this morning.  I stayed up to trade ES back to the ES overnight gap fill.  I am looking for a generally up day today, but we are still in a wicked downtrend.

The Ultimate Portfolio is sitting at 50/50, but am looking to change to a 70/30 favoring XIV on Monday.

The 50K to 1 million challenge had us buying SVXY again.  Likely it will remain bought today.

Our NADEX buy at the S3 succumbed to the end of the day marrket fall.  Will place today's bet at the open.  However, I posted a speculative purchase of 2020 that is still on, and slightly profitable right now.

Our IWM put spread has the 117 sold leg expiring today.  I intend to roll it into next week, not sure of the strike yet.  Trade is nicely profitable.

BIS trade is on from $28.50, and will stop a stop on it today.  This stock will get a lot of attention from me as I think Biotech is grossly overvalued and will get a lot of unanted attention as the elections loom.

My gold put spread has a sold leg expiring worthless today.  Looking to flip this into a credit spread. A slight loss on this as it was a out of the money trade to begin with.

I also bought UVXY puts again.  Expecting this fever to break early next week.

Good trading all.

Morning Update

The market did not disappoint yesterday if you are a trader.  Choppy for investors though.  However the direction is picked for a few days, and it looks like down.

The market's signals are so choppy into today that we kept the Ultimate Portfolio at 50/50, and the market after last nights fall is so oversold, I am leaving it there for now.

The $50K to a 1 million challenge had us go in long on SVXY, but will get stopped right back out. This happens sometimes on news events, and I do not second guess the signal (or what is the purpose of it).  So we take our loss and wait for the next set up.

The ES swing short is still intact, and you can read about my tea leaves reading on a post I did on Tim Knight's blog.  I closed my trade this morning but still think we are weak.  Looks like the volatility stocks are bull flagging on the 2 hour.  Not good for the market, if so.

http://slopeofhope.com/2015/08/climate-change-by-bkudla.html

NADEX was a killer for us, in a good way.  We put on four EOD trades that all hit for us.  Waiting for the open to place today's trades.  We are doing very well with these set ups.

I have a long on BIS, profitable as of this wtiting, and will set a stop.  IWM puts are profitable, Placed a small UVXY put trade on at the announcement, which I will close this morning, and the gold put spread trade is not profitable, but still has a week, and another leg to add.  So we will see.

Good trading all.

Morning Update

No changes on the two portfolios.  We are in the chop.  OPEX and the FED.  It is sad that fundamentals don't drive market direction anymore.  Now we have liquidity and leverage.

Regarding NADEX yesterday.  We had two great signals, but managed to lose a little money as I was uncomfortable holding them to the close.  This morning, I signaled a hopefoully a very high probability trade that last night's down move affords us to take a position at 2075, below S3 for some decent money.

For our positions; I closed the NUGT puts for flat, still holding GLD put spread, small loss, and IWM puts, all wek 4 with monthly sell puts as a hedge.

ES was choppy, and I have a swing low signal, but with Fed minutes day, and OPEX, I am reluctant to put it on until later today.  There is very little support back down to 72 even 2052 in this market.

Finally, we have a buy stop on BIS at 28.50.  If this market falls, Biotech will lead the way.

Morning Update

Yesterday was a crazy day.  Our ES swing long activated and it quickly was stopped out for a 10 point loss, then the fake out breakout, was a fake out, and it activated again and we at least got 5 points back.  Now we we hit resistance, again.    My signal suggests we go higher.  Watching for now.

The Ultimate portfolio remains at 50/50.  The $50K-$ 1 million challenge is stil in cash.

Individual trades of;

GLD put spread 105 week4/103 week3 still on, small loss
BIS trade was stopped out for a profit,
NUGT Week3 strike 4 put still on, flat
IWM week 4 118, week3 117 put, still on, currently at a loss

Still expecting strength this week, and weakness the next two weeks.

NADEX trades keep humming along.  Three nice trades yesterday.  Look for a gold short overnight tonight, and I will tweet out ES EOD.  Shortly.

Weekly Update

Ok, back from vacation and had a great back half of the week. This market is actually swinging, which fits my style of trading best.

First the Ultimate Portfolio.  I have it at 50/50 SDS/XIV and it is at 13% return on the year (started July 1st).  The market is up 2% in that time period.  I created this portfolio for investors that want to consistently beat the market with downside protection, and only trade it 2-3 times a month.  My suspicion is the portfolio will remain in the ratio for the week.  Next week, I will get it more defensive.

My $50K to $1 million in five year portfolio is clipping along.  We are at 96% return for the year. Currently back in cash, and still a 1 trade a week average.  I go all in and all out, without margin, using SVXY.  All these trades are posted real time and recorded on Twitter.  This is the best trading vehicle in investing.

My NADEX account portfolio to generate $800/month profit on a $500 initial investment is profitable.  I will post the results at the end of the month,  Since I was out half the month since starting this, September will be a better judge, but only one losing day so far, and it was through a rookie mistake.  I post all of these trades via Twitter, real or ahead of time through Limit trades.

The ES swing trades are working, obviously sinvce the market is swinging.  These are 1-3 day holds on ES short or long.  The swings are in cash right now.  I post these real time, with updated stops as I move mine.

Gold, and the iners are the only thing I am getting whipped around on though my Current NUGT puts are positive, but GLD put trade is down but it is a small out of the money trade that I still expect to play out.

Finally, I began to follow IBB/BIS and AAPL for swing trades.  In BIS right now, stop is a profitable level.  Waiting on a sell signal on AAPL.  These are bellweathers and they are starting to show weakness.

If you want to get all of these trades, sign up on the right.  The best deal on the internet.  Happy trading all.

Morning Update

The market is still bouncing around like a ping pong ball. This is not a healthy market.  We are still staying with a 50/50 ratio for the SDS/XIV Ultimate Portfolio. We are in cash in the 50K to 1 million dollar portfolio.  Both portfolios are doing very well and easily beating the market averages.

We took swing short positions on NUGT, GLD, BIS (Long) and IWM.  GLD, BIS and NUGT trades are profitable, and IWM is flat as of last night.  I will update stops today.  I am also watching AAPL for an entry short.

We had another NADEX EOD winner, and we place a Gold short on last night for EOD today.  So far that looks good.  I will Twet a EOD for S&P 500 by 6:50 am my time.

We closed a beautiful swing long on ES, plus 35, took a swing short that was stopped for minus 10, re entered a swing short, which is currently plus 9, with a stop guaranteeing plus 5.

This weekend I will update the spreadsheets.

Morning Update

All I can say is wow.  The market does not really know what to make of the Chinese devaluations. On the one hand, the market repriced out the Fed raising interest rates, and at the same time the market is evaluating the effect of deflation being exported by China.  All I know there was a clear reversal happening and we jumped on it.

We bought UVXY puts and had a nice day trade with them.  They are now closed.  However the $50K to $ 1 million challenge had us buying SVXY at $87.50 and we are still in it.  We are approaching 100% return for the year on this trade.

The Ultimate Portfolio is still at 50/50 SDS to XIV.  No need to change it today, as I expect little additional upside but no addtional volatility.  A net postive for this mix.

Our ES swing Trade which I Tweeted real time on a entry at 48 is still in play with a stop at 2083.  35 points higher.

NADEX trade busted for a small loss, and an avoidable one at that.  I usually close winners early when the price falls below 5 or above 95, and I did not on the 2075 sold leg.  I won't make that mistake again.  I have wide buy and sell limits on right now to see if we catch a move out to R1/S1.

Finally, I shorted gold again (I know, I have been a day late on this trade), but the signal is aligned nicely and I am giving it some time, with a good entry price.  The market will figure out that this is still a deflationary environment and will act accordingly.

Good trading all.

I'm Back

Good morning all.  I left my Ultimate portfolio to 50/50 while on vacation.  Will look at the signals to se if a change is warranted.

The $50K to 1 million portfolio is still in cash.  Volatility is picking up.  This China news is a big deal.  Personally it kills the rate rise babble we've been hearing about.  They can never raise rates. We are slipping into deflation.

I think that is why gold and miners started lifting.  I have been wrong on them these past three weeks as this bottomoming move has whipped me around.  Both the miners and gold are at some important junctures.  Will look at them and my signals to see if we get stopped here.

I started to follow AAPL again and will trade some calls and puts on them.  Same with the main
Biotech index.  These are the bellweathers.

Good trading all.

On Vacation

Taking vacation until the 12th of August.  Good Trading all.

Morning Update

I see the ADP report was awful, so the market is thinking no rate rise in September.  I wish they'd stop these games, as they hav all of this data yet yesterday suggests the economy is ready.  It obviously is not.

The Ulimate Portfolio is staying at 50/50.  The market is going nowhere fast.  The 50K to a million portfolio had us buying SVXY yesterday, but UVXY was not overbought enough for me to trigger a put trade.

NADEX had a nother double winner yesterday, and I will publish the trade today after the market opens.  We also put a gold short trade on overnight, that will pay us today.

I am also likely to put on anothewr ES swing trade but will look at the open first.

Amazing that gold did not react to the dollar weakness.  This suggests we are still in the grip on deflation.

Good Trading all.

Morning Update

Well, it is not often you get SDS up and XIV up, but we did, I'll take it.  We are going to hold the Ultimate Portfolio ratio at 50/50 for today.  I am expecting some follow through to the downside but not enough to switch the ratio.

The $50,000 to a million prortfolio is sitting in cash, and it is likely to stay there today.

NADEX was a double winner for us, the short at 2106, and the long at 2082.  I will announce a trade before 6:50 am Pacific Time.

The ES Swing short trade paid us for 11 points.

Took a small TVIX trade and was promptly pummelled out for a small loss.  I will wait for the next set up.

Gold and the miners have the weirdest bottoming pattern.  It has basically flat lined.  Every buy signal is met with selling, no real follow through to the downside.

For today, I will look to short above 2100, and get short below 2079, as there is little support until the 2060-70 area.

Get ready to REFI

http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/30yearyieldbreakingsupportaug3.jpg

Weekend update

It was a very good week for both the Ultimate portfolio (now up 13.1%, since inception July 1st 2015, vs. SPY up 1.5%.  The breaks in the chart show when I rebalanced the ratio of XIV and SDS.  I call that change ahead of time, for a end of that day's trading.  Currently we are 50/50.  It looks likely the signal will go bearish again Monday or Tuesday and I will go back to 70/30 in favor of SDS.

The $50K to one million dollar portfolio had another good week, and it is now up 86% for the year.  It is now back in cash.  The chart shows the number of trades since inception.  All trades are posted real time on Twitter, through my automated signal.

For Nadex, as promised I opened a small account for my Wife and Daughter, and will show you the results weekly.  My plan is to generate $1,000/month in income from a $500 dollar account only trading EOD.  I will bring the account to $500 at the beginning of each month.  I also post my trade and trade setup real time so it is actionable for you.  The signal is extremely reliable.  As an FYI, I have another NADEX account I trade more frequently that is generating income for the expenses of second home I own.  The key is to get direction right for the day, and not get greedy.

I also now will post TVIX buy signals.  This is only for those that can stand some gyrations though.  Profits can disappear quickly, especially overnight.  We will be conservative.  Seasonally we are coming into volatility and want to capture some of the action.

You get all of the above for $12.50/month.  I must be the nicest (or dumbest) guy in the world.

For the week ahead, I am leaning bearish.  Indicators flashed negative on Friday, and I am swinging short ES.  For precious metals, they stopped going down, and went flat.  I am still expecting a reversal trade, but so far every buy signal has petered out for a loss for me (save one).  This seems ominous to me as it suggests deflation is still in control going into the weakest trading months.  The dollar and emerging markets agree, and on Friday, the XLF flashed sell.  It is implausible to me that Yellen will raise rates into this environment.

Finally, I am doing a training webinar on my signals, and how to trade the portfolio's mentioned above.  The date is going to be August 20th, at 2pm Pacific time.  I will have a place to signup and costs by Thursday.  You will get an eBook of the discussions and it will be recorded.

Good trading all.