On Tuesday our XIV trade was stopped out at break even due to the news event. The signal now is neutral, and statistically today and Friday are up days, so we may see another buy signal for the open.
Everything else is pretty flat, as well. So the volatility trade is the only one I am considering in the market.
For NADEX I will put on EOD and some two hourly trades though, as I expect a fairly narrow range.
Going into next week, statistically a weak week, but a positive month. The complication is the reaction to the FED meeting, and rates. It is going to keep me trading small, and quick.
Wednesday, November 25, 2015
Sunday, November 22, 2015
Weekend Update
The last three of the four years XIV traded during Thanksgiving week XIV is up. The only down week was the end of a down move in XIV which saw a 400% subsequent move higher. The VIX term structure looks bullish to go long XIV. When the structure is in contango, the XIV managers must sell vix contracts to keep a constant 30 days duration. That pushes XIV higher.
Here is a link that explains it well. http://www.vixstrategies.com/roll-yield-and-why-youre-thinking-about-it-wrong/
We currently have another short term buy on XIV from Friday at $29.14 with a current stop at $29.30, trailing $1.00.
Last week, we had two profitable trades in XIV, and am keeping the stops a bit tight this week, as well.
Our NADEX end of day trades all worked out for us, as well. The signal is getting pretty reliable.
Took a shot on a buy signal on GDX, but it went nowhere again. I may pass on going long gold and miner signals until we see the reaction from the Fed meeting.
Here is a link that explains it well. http://www.vixstrategies.com/roll-yield-and-why-youre-thinking-about-it-wrong/
We currently have another short term buy on XIV from Friday at $29.14 with a current stop at $29.30, trailing $1.00.
Last week, we had two profitable trades in XIV, and am keeping the stops a bit tight this week, as well.
Our NADEX end of day trades all worked out for us, as well. The signal is getting pretty reliable.
Took a shot on a buy signal on GDX, but it went nowhere again. I may pass on going long gold and miner signals until we see the reaction from the Fed meeting.
Thursday, November 19, 2015
Recap and Look Ahead
Pretty simple day for us yesterday. We went in long and stayed there. Our SSO, XIV and long NADEX all performed well.
One exception, I had a 2025 December put option from overnight on that I closed upon 2065 being taken out. Minus $250 on that trade/hedge.
SSO stop is now $65.50. I am tightening up the trailing to $.50.
XIV's stop is now $28.54, also trailing $.50
NADEX closed true again.
My downtrend line was decisively broken and now am looking at a double top of 211.50 for SPY. However I am still expecting some retrace of this move higher so I am cautious.
I will post NADEX trade after the open and can see the range.
One exception, I had a 2025 December put option from overnight on that I closed upon 2065 being taken out. Minus $250 on that trade/hedge.
SSO stop is now $65.50. I am tightening up the trailing to $.50.
XIV's stop is now $28.54, also trailing $.50
NADEX closed true again.
My downtrend line was decisively broken and now am looking at a double top of 211.50 for SPY. However I am still expecting some retrace of this move higher so I am cautious.
I will post NADEX trade after the open and can see the range.
Wednesday, November 18, 2015
Recap and Look Ahead
Yesterday turned out as expected, but with a bit bigger range.
We got stopped out of GDX for a small loss. The miners are really struggling here. BIS was stopped out for a small gain. I had my stops a bit too tight. We also were stopped out of XIV and our UVXY put spread for a gain, and still in SSO, stop is now $62.90.
I placed a December future option put trade trade on last night for strike 2025, as I am expecting a retrace to the weeks begin before Friday close. Above 2065 nullify's this thesis.
All NADEX trades posted finished True.
For today, we are stuck in a 20 point range. If we break the downtrend line, then we are moving higher, if not, I am looking to retest the lows of the week by Friday.
All my trades are posted and recorded on Twitter as I take them or signaled from my system..
We got stopped out of GDX for a small loss. The miners are really struggling here. BIS was stopped out for a small gain. I had my stops a bit too tight. We also were stopped out of XIV and our UVXY put spread for a gain, and still in SSO, stop is now $62.90.
I placed a December future option put trade trade on last night for strike 2025, as I am expecting a retrace to the weeks begin before Friday close. Above 2065 nullify's this thesis.
All NADEX trades posted finished True.
For today, we are stuck in a 20 point range. If we break the downtrend line, then we are moving higher, if not, I am looking to retest the lows of the week by Friday.
All my trades are posted and recorded on Twitter as I take them or signaled from my system..
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
Recap and Look Ahead
Well I expected a reversal this week and was short volatility
(see http://bobsstocksignals.blogspot.com/2015/11/thinking-out-loud.html) but not so quickly and violently, But in a unstable, low liquidity market run by automated trading is becoming the norm. Having said that yesterday was a good day.
XIV's stop is now $28.08, trailing it now $.50.
We also entered SSO at $62.53, stop is now 63.25, trailing now $.50
BIS short at $32.50, stop is now $32.50, Trailing now $.50
GDX at 13.87, stop is 13.67. Trailing $.20
NADEX long trade was a winner, as well.
For today, I expect consolidation, and maybe a pullback. My target was 2060 for the week, and we hit it overnight. If we blast through we are going to challenge new highs, if not watching for a trade back down to Monday's open, by Friday.
Will post new set up's as they hit my signal. You can sign up on the right if interested.
(see http://bobsstocksignals.blogspot.com/2015/11/thinking-out-loud.html) but not so quickly and violently, But in a unstable, low liquidity market run by automated trading is becoming the norm. Having said that yesterday was a good day.
XIV's stop is now $28.08, trailing it now $.50.
We also entered SSO at $62.53, stop is now 63.25, trailing now $.50
BIS short at $32.50, stop is now $32.50, Trailing now $.50
GDX at 13.87, stop is 13.67. Trailing $.20
NADEX long trade was a winner, as well.
For today, I expect consolidation, and maybe a pullback. My target was 2060 for the week, and we hit it overnight. If we blast through we are going to challenge new highs, if not watching for a trade back down to Monday's open, by Friday.
Will post new set up's as they hit my signal. You can sign up on the right if interested.
Sunday, November 15, 2015
Thinking Out Loud
I am looking at this selloff to abate this week, and a Thanksgiving Day rally to commence. Then we sell off again into the Santa Claus rally, which gives way to selling into the New year. I think we move down to 1760 area on the futures late winter before start a new rally phase.
Any break up from the down trend line says we start a more meaningful up move first.
If my scenario plays out we will have a great opportunity to buy XIV at a bargain of about $10, for a multi-month triple digit expected gain.
Any break up from the down trend line says we start a more meaningful up move first.
If my scenario plays out we will have a great opportunity to buy XIV at a bargain of about $10, for a multi-month triple digit expected gain.
Friday, November 13, 2015
Daily Recap / Look Ahead
Yesterday was a mixed bag for me. I had a good trade making $1.80 on IWM short, but jumped the move in miners and lost $.87 on DUST in the opening whipsaw. The signal hit, and I took it. It happens.
I also entered puts on UVXY for next Friday (28's). I am holding them still . My signal is max overbought and historically the mean reversion hits within 3-5 trading days. I will add to and sell a put on the $26's by the end of the day.
For NADEX took one buy under the double bottom, (EOD 2051 )and stopped myself out at 2053. I did not reenter another trade.
We had a move outside of the range and then a reversal. I need to aggressively trade that failure, in this case, go short.
For today, it is likely we have an inside day. We are still in a downtrend and we have been selling consolidating, selling, etc. My view is we target 198 on SPY, and will short this next move higher into the 20 moving average (2 hour chart).
Update, if we open above 2040, I see us testing the overnight high, if not looking at the S1, at 2027 area. I bought EOD 2025 for $81. Will make additional trades after 10:30 EST.
I also entered puts on UVXY for next Friday (28's). I am holding them still . My signal is max overbought and historically the mean reversion hits within 3-5 trading days. I will add to and sell a put on the $26's by the end of the day.
For NADEX took one buy under the double bottom, (EOD 2051 )and stopped myself out at 2053. I did not reenter another trade.
We had a move outside of the range and then a reversal. I need to aggressively trade that failure, in this case, go short.
For today, it is likely we have an inside day. We are still in a downtrend and we have been selling consolidating, selling, etc. My view is we target 198 on SPY, and will short this next move higher into the 20 moving average (2 hour chart).
Update, if we open above 2040, I see us testing the overnight high, if not looking at the S1, at 2027 area. I bought EOD 2025 for $81. Will make additional trades after 10:30 EST.
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
Daily Recap
Today both NADEX EOD trades were positive for us. I made a strategic shift to watching the first hour before entering. We are getting a lot of trend and trend reversal trades vs the expected range bound trades.
I look at the first hour for my range and note if the Overnight range was taken out to guide my entries.
We exited the XIV long trade with a $.60 trailing stop profit. We entered IWM short at 117.63, with a $.63 trailing. Current stop is 117.76.
Thursday before OPEX is traditionally bearish, and we are sitting on the neckline of a Head and Shoulder top. We fail, down to 2025-30 area, Pattern fails, then right back up we go.
Good night.
I look at the first hour for my range and note if the Overnight range was taken out to guide my entries.
We exited the XIV long trade with a $.60 trailing stop profit. We entered IWM short at 117.63, with a $.63 trailing. Current stop is 117.76.
Thursday before OPEX is traditionally bearish, and we are sitting on the neckline of a Head and Shoulder top. We fail, down to 2025-30 area, Pattern fails, then right back up we go.
Good night.
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
How to Use My Signals
Just a reminder on how to use my signals.
As I don't know how everyone likes to trade, and mixing it up myself, I simply publish the buy and sell signal coming from my software. You pick what you like to trade.
I use a 2 hour chart, and it is a combination of momentum, trend and position indicators that alert me to a trade. Once the signal fires you have a number of choices. Example; yesterday a buy on GLD and DUST fired.
I published the signal, the price at which it fired, and a stop and a trailing stop. My stop is based on a ATR that matches my momentum look back, and I trail using the same level. This way if we get a trend move, we can stay in the trade and profit from it. If not, get out and move on to the next trade. Trading is a numbers game, and stops are critical, and is most traders Achilles heel (me too when I ignore placing them). I won't publish when the stop loss hits though. (I can't capture it, and may not be in that trade), but if I publish a trade I take, I will publish my exit.
I like to use options, so I usually take a at the money strike, two weeks out, and us the stop as a guide to exit the trade. Sometimes I will do a credit spread to capture income opposite of the direction of the signal (do that mostly with SPY and VXX), and another choice is to use the leveraged ETF's instead, like UVXY for a VXX signal, NUGT for GDX, etc. Your choice.
For NADEX, I stop out if price hits my strike, as NADEX does not allow stop losses.
Finally, I am now comfortable enough with a sixty minute signal for SPX to recommend ES future options. More of a swing/Climate type of trade. Stay tuned.
Good trading
As I don't know how everyone likes to trade, and mixing it up myself, I simply publish the buy and sell signal coming from my software. You pick what you like to trade.
I use a 2 hour chart, and it is a combination of momentum, trend and position indicators that alert me to a trade. Once the signal fires you have a number of choices. Example; yesterday a buy on GLD and DUST fired.
I published the signal, the price at which it fired, and a stop and a trailing stop. My stop is based on a ATR that matches my momentum look back, and I trail using the same level. This way if we get a trend move, we can stay in the trade and profit from it. If not, get out and move on to the next trade. Trading is a numbers game, and stops are critical, and is most traders Achilles heel (me too when I ignore placing them). I won't publish when the stop loss hits though. (I can't capture it, and may not be in that trade), but if I publish a trade I take, I will publish my exit.
I like to use options, so I usually take a at the money strike, two weeks out, and us the stop as a guide to exit the trade. Sometimes I will do a credit spread to capture income opposite of the direction of the signal (do that mostly with SPY and VXX), and another choice is to use the leveraged ETF's instead, like UVXY for a VXX signal, NUGT for GDX, etc. Your choice.
For NADEX, I stop out if price hits my strike, as NADEX does not allow stop losses.
Finally, I am now comfortable enough with a sixty minute signal for SPX to recommend ES future options. More of a swing/Climate type of trade. Stay tuned.
Good trading
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