Mortality

Two weeks ago, my father passed away.  When these things happen, you start to think about your remaining time and what that means for you, your family, your impact, and what the world will look like at your end.

As I reflect on these things, I started looking at other patterns coming to conclusion over these next 25 years, and how do I prepare myself, family, friends, and anyone else who will listen.  The patterns are large, and the impacts are huge, and in 17 years of trading I noticed one thing; negative events occur quickly, capturing the unaware, unbelieving, and unprepared off guard.

We have four of them staring us in the face, and they are all interelated, or the impacts will be,

• Worldwide demographic time bomb/Mass Migration.  The wealthy, productive societies are rapidly aging, and the less productive and poor are not.  This is a triple whammy for Europe, a double whammy for the U.S. and a Whammy for North/NorthEast Asia.  Europe will not be able to care for their elderly, at the same time they are importing people who can offer nothing, yet need government resources to survive, and are bringing a culture that is foreign and hostile to everything Europe holds dear.  The U.S. suffers from the first two, and Asia will suffer the burden of caring for their elderly.  In fact the next two patterns will make this problem incredibly painful, and incendiary.

• Worldwide climate cold phase pattern aligning.  There are eight climate influencers, and every two hundred tears, they all align in the negative phase.  When that happens, worldwide growing seasons shrink by 15%, and agriculture production above the 45 Laditude cease for 10-15 years.  The rest of the world sees incredibly wild swings of drought, flood, heat, and cold.  These patterns are :
• ENSO/SOI  (El Nino/La Nina)
• Atlantic MultiDecadalOscillator
• Arctic Oscillator
• Pacific DecadalOscillator
• Solar Minimums
• Grand Solar Minimums
• Lunar Standstill
• Landscheit Cycle

       This phase started again in the late 90's (hence the Hiatus of Global warming), and will intensify        until 2030, when we start our next 200 year warming pattern.  Anywhere between 17-35%                  reduction in food production is forecasted.  I can't imagine the stress that will have on                          governments around the world, and the decisions on life and death that will be made.  Couple              this with extreme ethnic and cultural diversity shoved together into urban mega cities, and                    potentially explosive societal events will occur.

• Peak credit.  At the same time the above events are happening, governments around the world will be in the least position to help.  They are broke, they set expectations of some sort of fountain of youth money supply, and there ability to solve and manage the big problems.  All of that will be laid bare in the coming decade.  We are on our own, at best, and with an increasingly hostile, and parnoid government out for its own survival, at worst.

Ready to kill yourself yet?  LOL, sounds bad, and it is, but you must know the important problems, in order to solve them.  Remember:

HE WHO PANICS FIRST WINS!

and

TO THE PREPARED GOES THE PROFITS!

I will have much more to say about this in the coming months, but this is what you should start to think about now, in order to profit and survive.

• China, Russia, Europe,Canada, and Japan will be failed societies, think about getting out.
• Southeast Asia, maybe Australia, maybe Northern California, South Central U.S, North Central Mexico, and Argentina likely OK.  India and Pakistan are wild cards depending on their ability to manage the volatility.
• Get out of the cities, You will be trapped.
• Get as energy and food independent, as possible.  Be prepared to grow food under glass, depending where you are living.  Solar and wind, a must.
• Buy the Agriculture, Coal, ETF's, and the best Natural Gas  names once the bankruptcy waves subside.
• For your children, or yourself if you are young enough, Food technology, Geneticists, Biochemistry, Civil Engineering, Biomedical Engineering, Water Technology, and Robotics. Forget everything else.  A starving and aging world does not need Pysch majors.

I hope I got your attention.  Now do something about it.

Buy Low, Sell High

While we are enjoying low soybean prices, keep in mind this chart. We can expect a strong reversion of the El Nino event and that means CORN, WEAT, and SOYB are bargains here. 

For perspective Soybeans doubled during the last LaNina, and this one will be 1.5 times stronger. 
 
Buy low, sell high. 
 

I already started tracking them, primarily through DBA.  Sign up for my signals and I will let you know when to buy, add, reduce, and sell these stocks.  Your family's to thrive is at stake.

President Obama's Baby

The President takes great pride in Saving Detroit.  He did it by allowing anyone with a pulse to buy a car on Credit.  They are now defaulting in great numbers, and is close to the 2008 levels.  When this door closes, the economy will suffer some serious losses.

My Long Logic

A Decision Has Been Made

It sure apears that front running the Fed's March meeting is the play.  for me that means I drop my short positions, take the loss and go long high beta (LABU), and oil (UWTI).  I will also buy some DUST as risk on means slam gold.

I will continue to monitor DAG, as well.  I will post entries and stops for my subscribers via Twitter.

Hard Resistance?

Last week was a tough one for me.  My father passed away and they live 3000 miles away.  So I was distracted from the markets  a bit.  But I am now back.

I went short on Tuesday day, after riding the reversal for three days.  I left those trades on, those being SDS, TVIX, and SRS.  The week after OPEX is usually weak.

Strategically:

Two things are going to happen; either we (the market) decides to front run the Federal Reserve anticipating them folding and blast through 195, or force the Fed to fold by driving the market lower than 181.

I think a case can be made in either direction.

The short case says 194/5 can't be broken even with driving the most shorted to cover, oil shorts to cover, and vol longs to sell.  The Yen is breaking higher again, as well.

On the long side, Biotech is firming up, as well as Gold and the miners suggesting major liquidity is forthcoming.

Monday's have been red of late, and if so I will set stops on my shorts, if Green I will take my losses and wait for a better setup and go long LABU.

I am also interested in taking another run at DUST

I added DAG to my watch-list as I think food prices will run with any new liquidity injected into the markets.

Reversal in Process

After Thursday's hard push down was rejected, we rallied Friday over the hourly 22 EMA, which also happened to flip positive slope.  This tells me to respect a reversal.  We caught the reversal with a short vol and a long Biotech trade, and are still holding.  We'll see where this peters out.

I expect there will be a raid on gold and silver, and I had a sell signal that was rejected Friday for no gain/loss, but will reenter short if it sets up again.  I m bullish on the PM's but that move was too far and too fast and tempting for the robots to short.

The signals are just killing it.  No drama, real time buy and sell signals tweeted, and in many cases buy and sell limits/stops given.  I follow 8 categories of ETF's, long/short, non leveraged and ultra Something for everyone, and at $12.50/month it is a bargain.  I offer this price, as a service as most paid sites are garbage at 8 times the price.  It gives me enough income to focus on you and your trade setups.

Enjoy the week ahead.

Just Waiting on Yellen

We are having our predictable push into the Humprey Hawkin meetings.  Unless she is explicit on easing we will continue the trend down.  For now, pretty light,  short the Energy producers and temporarily short GDX.   I am looking to short IWM and SPY soon.  Likely to use SDS, TVIX, and TWM as the vehicles.

Also, as I was under the weather and super bowl last weekend, I did not update my results.  They are below.

We're Turning Japanese, I Really Think So

The second breakout attempt of 2016 has just failed.  It failed at the 50% retrace line, and broke back below the 38% line.  That is around the 191.50 area.  That should prove difficult to move higher though on this go around.  If 187.70 area fails we can expect a move back below 180 area.

The cause for alarm this time is Japan.  Believe it or not the market did not think Japan went negative enough.  Japan is in a deflationary collapse, and all of their efforts to reflate are not working.  Essentially they are running out of ways to arbitrate the interest rate differentials, and when you go negative, it is like quantum physics, the rules change.  Instead of forcing borrowing and credit creation which causes the inflation they want people and businesses simply leave the banking system and the country.  That is a big problem for them, and the rest of the world as it drives deflation worldwide.

We now have the three largest trading nations/blocs, all exporters, with negative interest rates or rapidly devaluing their currencies, or both.  This will crush the profit margins of our multi-nationals due to currency,  and our domestic companies through price dumping into our shores.

Remember growth cannot separate from interest rates, and margins follow growth, and stock prices follow cash flow.  All of this brought to you by the smartest people in the room.  This will not end well.  Cash, Gold, and Treasuries are the safe havens this year.