Thursday, August 13, 2015

Morning Update

All I can say is wow.  The market does not really know what to make of the Chinese devaluations. On the one hand, the market repriced out the Fed raising interest rates, and at the same time the market is evaluating the effect of deflation being exported by China.  All I know there was a clear reversal happening and we jumped on it.

We bought UVXY puts and had a nice day trade with them.  They are now closed.  However the $50K to $ 1 million challenge had us buying SVXY at $87.50 and we are still in it.  We are approaching 100% return for the year on this trade.

The Ultimate Portfolio is still at 50/50 SDS to XIV.  No need to change it today, as I expect little additional upside but no addtional volatility.  A net postive for this mix.

Our ES swing Trade which I Tweeted real time on a entry at 48 is still in play with a stop at 2083.  35 points higher.

NADEX trade busted for a small loss, and an avoidable one at that.  I usually close winners early when the price falls below 5 or above 95, and I did not on the 2075 sold leg.  I won't make that mistake again.  I have wide buy and sell limits on right now to see if we catch a move out to R1/S1.

Finally, I shorted gold again (I know, I have been a day late on this trade), but the signal is aligned nicely and I am giving it some time, with a good entry price.  The market will figure out that this is still a deflationary environment and will act accordingly.

Good trading all.

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